April 1999 Tsunami Inundation Mapping Progress Report
R. Kamphaus and F. González(NOAA/PMEL/TIME), A. Baptista (OGI), R. Hansen (UAFGI), and C. Synolakis (USC)

ALASKA

The UAFGI has implemented the numerical simulation code on the Cray supercomputer. The code is capable of simulating the generation of tsunami by an earthquake and transoceanic propagation of the wave. A north Pacific ocean (0-65N, 120E-140W) 6 min grid and a finer 2 min grid for the Gulf of Alaska (52-62N, 160-140W) have been constructed. These grids are interactively connected. The next finer resolution grid will be constructed and implemented in the model as soon as the next bathymetric data set is supplied by TIME.

1. Kodiak City - topography digitized; additional bathymetry data required for area around Kodiak Island. Previous study reviewed.
2. USCG Base - topography digitized; available bathymetry is being located.
3. Women s Bay - topography digitized; available bathymetry is being located.

FUTURE WORK: ADES (Gary Brown) will convene a meeting / teleconference including ADES personnel and the scientific community in Alaska to refine the 'short list' of communities for future work. Future work will be supported by the Alaska Science and Technology Foundation (ASTF).

UAF GI Report (Roger Hansen and Elena Troshina)
1. Several hypothetical earthquake scenarios have been computed.
2. ADGGS is currently preparing base maps (georeferenced USGS 1:25,000 topo images) for the Kodiak project. Inundation limits and evacuation routes will be plotted on them once the modeling is completed.
3. Troshina is now full time on this project.

CALIFORNIA

• San Francisco Area - grids of combined bathymetry and topography were provided to USC for this area. The numerical code has been implemented and uses a nested grid structure, with the finest grid spacing of 3 arc-seconds. Simple hypothetical earthquakes of varying length, width, dip, and strike have been used. A preliminary plot of absolute maximum runup has been produced. Additional scenarios will be proposed by seismologists and new cases will be run.
• Santa Barbara Area - preliminary grid (500 m spacing) constructed. A total of 45 runs from three different sources of varying slip angle and dip have been completed. Finer resolution grid construction in progress. Additional earthquake sources will be discussed by seismologists.
• Three other priority areas were identified for modeling, time and resources permitting:
  1. San Diego Area - bathymetry and topography data are being located and collected at TIME. Combined grid of bathymetry and topography in progress.
  2. Eureka and Crescent City - (comparison of finite element and finite difference modeling techniques)
  3. Los Angeles Area

USC Report (Costas Synolakis and Jose Borrero)
1. Consulted Southern California Earthquake Center (SCEC) for current offshore seismic information. Four potential tsunamigenic faults for Santa Barbara identified.
2. Meeting of seismologists with expertise in the southern California area to be scheduled. Will identify potential tsunamigenic faults system, and source parameters.
3. PNG event raised possibility of coseismic submarine landslides. Currently investigating submarine landslide hazards in California.

HAWAII

Hawaii has begun the process of finding a contractor for their tsunami modeling:
1. two 'Scope of work' solicitations have been developed: one for the local tsunami threat, and one for the distant threat
2. deadline for submission of contractor qualifications is 31 May 99
3. all work will be contracted to be completed by 30 Sep 2000

OREGON

OR STATUS MAP
• Newport (Yaquina Bay) - Completed December 1997 and published as DOGAMI Report IMS-2 and Open-file report O-97-34.

• Seaside - Completed July 1998 and published as DOGAMI Report IMS-3.
• Gold Beach - Model runs completed and reviewed. Final adjustments made and model runs in progress to be completed by 14 May 99. Inundation map will be submitted by 30 June 99.
• Warrenton-Astoria - Model runs completed in tandem with Washington sites. Inundation maps in progress.

  FUTURE WORK: Coos Bay - OGI has agreed to perform this modeling. A DRAFT contract for FY 99 has been written at DOGAMI. (NOTE: This contract will include work in Washington also.) In addition, DOGAMI will use the remainder of it's funds to develop a Digital Elevation Model (DEM) of the area.

  NOTE: In addition, Oregon Emergency Management (Darienzo) has worked with many coastal communities on preparing pamphlet-size Tsunami Evacuation Maps. Evacuation maps have been completed for: Bandon (Coquille River), Manzanita, Winchester Bay (Umpqua River), and Cannon Beach. Additional maps are in progress for: Waldport, Yachats, Lincoln City, Florence, and Newport.

OGI Report (Ed Myers and António Baptista) The Ph.D. thesis of Ed Myers on Physical and Numerical Analysis of Long Wave Modeling for Tsunamis and Tides was successfully defended in October 1998. This thesis describes the scientific and modeling basis for the simulations performed for all Oregon and Washington sites and discusses limitations thereof. Four papers have been submitted to peer-reviewed journals based on the thesis, one of which is in press:
1. Myers, E.P. , A.M. Baptista, and G.R Priest, "Finite Element Modeling of Potential Cascadia Subduction Zone Tsunamis," Science of Tsunami Hazards (in press).
2. Myers, E.P. and A.M. Baptista, "Numerical Considerations in Finite Element Simulations of Tsunamis" (submitted to International Journal for Numerical Methods in Fluids, 11/98).
3. Myers, E.P. and A.M. Baptista, "Inversion for Tides in the Eastern North Pacific Ocean" (submitted to Advances in Water Resources, 11/98).
4. Myers, E.P. and A.M. Baptista, "Modeling of Past Tsunamis: One Model's Lessons from the 1993 Hakkaido Nasei-Oki and 1964 Alaska Tsunamis" (submitted to Natural Hazards, 11/98).

WASHINGTON

WA STATUS MAP
• Gray's Harbor (Gray's Harbor County) - Model runs completed in tandem with Warrenton Astoria, OR and Willapa Bay / Long Beach, WA. Inundation maps in progress. Draft maps submitted to county 27 Apr 99.
• Willapa Bay / Long Beach Peninsula (Pacific County) - Model runs completed in tandem with Warrenton-Astoria, OR and Gray's Harbor, WA. Inundation maps in progress. Draft inundation maps (series of 8 quads) completed and reviewed at OGI. Draft maps will be submitted to county 3 May 99. FUTURE WORK: Port Angeles / Port Townsend - OGI has agreed to perform this modeling. A DRAFT contract for FY 99 has been written at DOGAMI. (NOTE: This contract will includes work in Oregon also). Recently collected bathymetry data has been requested by TIME for this work.

OGI Report (Ed Myers and António Baptista) The Ph.D. thesis of Ed Myers on Physical and Numerical Analysis of Long Wave Modeling for Tsunamis and Tides was successfully defended in October 1998. This thesis describes the scientific and modeling basis for the simulations performed for all Oregon and Washington sites and discusses limitations thereof. Four papers have been submitted to peer-reviewed journals based on the thesis, one of which is in press:
1. Myers, E.P. , A.M. Baptista, and G.R Priest, "Finite Element Modeling of Potential Cascadia Subduction Zone Tsunamis," Science of Tsunami Hazards (in press).
2. Myers, E.P. and A.M. Baptista, "Numerical Considerations in Finite Element Simulations of Tsunamis" (submitted to International Journal for Numerical Methods in Fluids, 11/98).
3. Myers, E.P. and A.M. Baptista, "Inversion for Tides in the Eastern North Pacific Ocean" (submitted to Advances in Water Resources, 11/98).
4. Myers, E.P. and A.M. Baptista, "Modeling of Past Tsunamis: One Model's Lessons from the 1993 Hakkaido Nasei-Oki and 1964 Alaska Tsunamis" (submitted to Natural Hazards, 11/98).